The National Science and Math Quiz has just ended amidst the usual mix of euphoria, disappointment and everything in between. Prempeh College proved to the nation that they indeed “Glorf5 God” (a smart reference to glorifying God and their desired 5-time win) when they gained the upper hand over Keta Senior High and the Presbyterian Boys Senior High School, Legon (Presec).
It was a rather fiercely competed finals especially between the six-time winner, Presec and the then four-time winner, Prempeh. The two schools closely marked each other till the final round. And it is safe to say the winner of competition was only determined halfway through the final round when Prempeh correctly answered two out of the four riddles. It had been a tense atmosphere until then, with the audience and observers clinging to the edge of their seats.
Elsewhere, keenly following the competition, was the team at Eureka who had predicted a win for Prempeh College. We had spent the previous days analyzing data from the competition and had put together a dashboard. This for us, was the moment of truth. How well did we predict the outcome?
As it turned out, we were spot on. This of course for any data analyst then begs the question:
How and why did we predict a win for Prempeh College?
Our team went through a rigorous and methodical process which involved gathering and analyzing data. This data was used together with a myriad of other factors: the experience of our team, general knowledge about the quiz and the senior high school terrain in Ghana, knowledge of other similar quizzes, and our very own ‘Eureka factor’.
Compiling the various features
Our first step was to compile a list of features, which refer to the variables that inform a prediction. In the case of the NSMQ, some potential features included: the past performance of the schools and their teams, the support from old students and the school, the brilliance of candidates and their substitutes, the nature of questions asked vis-à-vis the intellectual strength of the candidates, the location of the competition, success rates, amongst others.
Determining their level of impact
When the features have been identified, we then work out how impactful they are in determining who wins. For instance, while past performance in previous competitions would be important for determining the strength of a school, performance over the various stages within a particular year’s competition would weigh more. Hence, while Presec, having already won six of ten quizzes, looked like a favorite to many for this year, Prempeh had obtained a higher score over the different stages of this year’s competition.
Additionally, a look at the success rates showed that Prempeh College had a higher success rate (80%) than Presec (67%), having won in 4 out of 5 appearances compared to Presec’s 6 wins in 9 appearances.
Also considering that the finals were held in Kumasi, Prempeh had the advantage of playing on home turf. While there is no historical information for the National Science and Math Quiz on the impact of having a home advantage, experience from observing other competitions and, what brings me to the next point, the Eureka factor, signaled this to be a potentially key feature.
A mix of the Eureka factor
Eureka BI prides itself in the expertise of its team and its invaluable human resource. While there may be a number of unknowns in predictive analysis which may sway the final outcome, the experience of our team and our established and time-proven methods of analyzing data ensures that we are often as close to the mark as is humanly possible. We apply a keen sense of judgment informed by intuition and groomed over years of experience and fine-tuning. This is what makes Eureka stand out. Watch our prediction on Joy news by our team lead below.
The National Science and Math Quiz has just ended amidst the usual mix of euphoria, disappointment and everything in between. Prempeh College proved to the nation that they indeed “Glorf5 God” (a smart reference to glorifying God and their desired 5-time win) when they gained the upper hand over Keta Senior High and the Presbyterian Boys Senior High School, Legon (Presec). Our team went through a rigorous and methodical process which involved gathering and analyzing data. This data was used together with a myriad of other factors to predict the Ultimate winner.
The National Science and Math Quiz has just ended amidst the usual mix of euphoria, disappointment and everything in between. Prempeh College proved to the nation that they indeed “Glorf5 God” (a smart reference to glorifying God and their desired 5-time win) when they gained the upper hand over Keta Senior High and the Presbyterian Boys Senior High School, Legon (Presec). Our team went through a rigorous and methodical process which involved gathering and analyzing data. This data was used together with a myriad of other factors to predict the Ultimate winner.
